Current form doesn’t give us much clue to separating these two. Both are in mediocre form domestically, sitting in the middle of their respective tables and out of next season’s European spots. I think Litex, at their best, can give Hamburg a run for their money. They don’t have a huge superstar on either side of the ball, but the addition of Fabien Boudarene definitely shores up their defensive midfield, and Hamburg should see a very tough run at goal. Hamburg will be looking for goals from Ivica Olic, their Croatian international striker, who had two goals in the Champions League last season with HSV group-mate CSKA Moscow. But goals have been few and far between for HSV so far this year in Germany, with Rafael Van der Vaart topping their list of scorers mainly due to penalties. Hamburg have lost close matches this season, and if Litex can keep them from running, they will have some prayer, but I have to tip Hamburg for this one. Let’s say 1-1 at Litex and 2-0 to Hamburg in Germany.

Then again, if anything can doom them, it’s me predicting them to win, so time will tell.

Sweden is kicking ass
In the early rounds of Europe this year, there is one undisputed king, and it is Sweden. There are currently five Swedish sides left in European competition (1 Champions League and 4 UEFA Cup), and between them, they are undefeated in sixteen matches so far this season. Hammarby is the only first-round Intertoto Cup team still alive in the UEFA Cup, and the three other Swedish sides in the Cup dispatched their opponents in the last round by a frightening 20-1 margin. Those who take the Swedes lightly this season do so at their peril. They are tough on defense and they can score goals. What they have already accomplished is pretty incredible. Just a note – Finnish sides aren’t doing much worse, with only one loss in their 14 early European matches.

Tough times for Malta
For every nation enjoying a bit of European domination, there must be someone on the other side of the balance, and this year, the European whipping boy seems to be Malta. Maltese sides have lost all eight of their European matches so far, by a depressing total of 28 goals to 3. Where other minnows like Luxembourg and Kazakhstan have enjoyed early successes, Malta has crashed out of Europe badly, and have a long wait to lick their wounds before next season.

The UEFA Cup returns this week, with Intertoto winners like Lens and Blackburn getting their start in the tournament. It should be an interesting week.

União Leiria (Portugal)
Sampdoria (Italy)
Atlético Madrid (Spain)
Oţelul Galaţi (Romania)
Tobol Kostanay (Kazakhstan)
Hamburger SV (Germany)
Lens (France)
Rapid Vienna (Austria)
Blackburn Rovers (England)
Hammarby (Sweden)
Aalborg BK (Denmark)

Now, in addition to the fight for the UEFA Cup itself, these teams will be fighting for the Intertoto Cup, now an actual trophy, which will be awarded to the side from this list that progresses the furthest. Last year, it was Newcastle United. Will Blackburn make it an English double? Will Hamburg live up to their expectations and go far? Can Hammarby hold on and continue their dream run? These answers will have to wait until August 16, when the second qualifying round gets underway. Because of their strong UEFA coefficients, three of the Intertoto qualifiers (Lens, Hamburg and Blackburn) will actually be in the top five seeds of the round, and so should have relatively smooth rides into the Cup proper.

Because of Rapid Vienna’s qualification, there could be as many as four Austrian sides in the round. Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna have already qualified, and both Mattersburg and especially SV Ried are in position to progress in the Cup. This will equal Switzerland’s performance last season, where three of the four qualifiers moved on another step in the Cup as well, and two, Grasshoppers and Basel, made it to the Group stage. Is it Austria’s year to do the same? Time will tell.

And speaking of underdogs, let me also congratulate Iraq, who won the Asian Cup today. So many in the world were pulling for you – great job.

My predictions:
União Leiria (Portugal) over Hajduk Kula (Serbia)
Tobol Kostenay (Kazakhstan) over OFI Crete (Greece)
Hamburg (Germany) over Dacia Chişinău (Moldova)
Rapid Vienna (Austria) over Rubin Kazan (Russia)
Utrecht (Netherlands) over Hammarby (Sweden)
Aalborg BK (Denmark) over KAA Gent (Belgium)

Dacia and Hammarby are the last of the first round minnows left, so I hope I’m wrong about one of them, but neither took their home leg, and I can’t see Hamburg losing this early. Maybe Utrecht.

In other matches today:

Sampdoria hosts Cherno More Varna of Bulgaria. The Italians hold a 1-0 lead after the first leg.
Lens hosts Chornomorets Odessa, after a 0-0 first leg.
Vetra travels to Blackburn to take on Rovers, and will be hard-pressed to recoil after a 2-0 Rovers win in the opening leg.

My predictions:
Gloria Bistriţa over Atlético Madrid (FALSE – looks like I picked the wrong Romanians. Madrid on away goals, 2-2 agg.)
Trabzonspor over Oţelul Galaţi (FALSE – Galaţi repeated their 2-1 win for a total of 4-2 over the Storm!)
Sampdoria over Cherno (TRUE – 2-0 aggregate)
Lens over Odessa (TRUE – 3-1 aggregate)
Blackburn over Vetra (TRUE – Blackburn win on 6-0 aggregate)

More later, after all today’s action. I’m going to go see if I can find the Rovers match on in a pub, but since I’m currently in London, the Arsenal-PSG match will likely be the only thing on.

I predicted … let me look … “a former Yugo derby that has to have some strong feelings surrounding it”. I now present myself with the award for understatement of the year. Serbian side Partizan Belgrade and Bosnians HŠK Zrinjski Mostar met on Thursday in a match that police had already deemed high-risk, and it, sadly, more than lived up to that expectation. Fans clashed almost from the beginning, and by the time it was over, 28 police officers were injured, one seriously. All indications are that the officer will recover, and hopefully this incident, unlike the one in Italy last February, will not lead to the death of one of the brave officers trying to keep the peace so that a football game could proceed.

Partizan won the match, 6-1, but because of their fans’ pathetic behavior, their European campaign is over, and a ban may well be coming. It would have been one of the performances of the round, a great victory, but now, the team goes home shamed and humiliated by the very “supporters” that should have been cheering its success.

For those of you interested in seeing it, here is video of the incident. I would say more about what a sad day this is for football, but it’s hardly an unusual day, and I will concentrate instead on being thankful that these nationalist idiots who destroyed their own team’s chances in Europe seemingly took no lives. At least we have that.

There are some nasty scenes in this video, but I think its important that we watch and realize how bad things can get when nationalism and the passion of football meet.