The current situation in the UEFA Cup

There is one matchday to go in the group stages of the 2007-08 UEFA Cup. Here are the current standings in each group, and which scenarios mean qualification for which teams.

Group A
Qualified: Everton (9 pts)
Still in the mix: Zenit St. Petersburg (5 pts), AZ (4 pts), Nurnberg (4 pts)
Disqualified: Larisa (0 pts)

Everton is in and Larisa is out. As for the rest, any two of the three could make it through. If AZ beats Everton on Dec. 20, they’re in. A draw brings them even with Zenit, who have already played all of their matches, but Zenit would likely win the tiebreak on total goals. Similarly, if Nurnberg can beat Larisa in Greece, they move on, but a draw would put them behind Zenit on goal difference, and they’d need AZ to lose outright to Everton. Complicated group, and if I had to pick the remaining spots, I’d pick Nurnberg with a win over the Greeks and Zenit to back in by way of an Everton result, probably a draw.

Group B
Qualified: Panathinaikos (9 pts), Atletico Madrid (7 pts)
Still in the mix: Copenhagen (3 pts), Aberdeen (1 pt)
Disqualified: Locomotiv Moscow (2 pts, all games played)

The third spot in the group comes down to one game, head to head between Aberdeen and Copenhagen in Scotland. On paper, they’re pretty even, but (and I’m extremely biased here) I see Aberdeen going through on a home win. A draw would give the spot to Copenhagen.

Group C
Qualified: Villareal (7 pts)
Still in the mix: Fiorentina (5 pts), AEK Athens (5 pts), Mlada Boleslav (3 pts)
Disqualified: Elfsborg (1 pt)

Boleslav needs to win at Fiorentina, or else this group is already decided. A draw or a Viola win puts the Italian side and Athens through, regardless of the result of Athens v. Villareal. If the Czechs do pull off the win, they’re in and Athens will need at least a point to beat out Fiorentina for the third spot. However, I think Fiorentina will continue to do well and take their home win, putting themselves and Athens through.

Group D
Qualified: Hamburg (9 pts), Basel (7 pts)
Still in the mix: Brann (4 pts), Dinamo Zagreb (1 pt), Rennes (1 pt)

Just like in Group B, we have one meaningful match on the last matchday. Hamburg v. Basel is important in determining who wins the group, but both are through regardless of the outcome. In order for either Zagreb or Rennes to overtake Brann for the third spot, they have to win the game, and win it convincingly. Because of goal differential, Dinamo could get by with a 2-goal victory, which would put them tied with Brann on goal differential and goals scored, but ahead on away goals. Rennes needs to win by at least three goals. Personally, I don’t think either will do it, and I see Brann coasting through.

Group E
Qualified: Spartak Moscow (7 pts), Zurich (6 pts), Bayer Leverkusen (6 pts)
Disqualified: Sparta Prague (4 pts, all games played), Toulouse (0 pts)

The spots have already been decided in this group, but the order hasn’t, and the order makes all the difference in whether you line up against a third-place UEFA Cup team or a third-place Champions League team. Spartak needs a win at Toulouse to wrap up the top spot, and I think they’ll probably get it. Meanwhile, Leverkusen and Zurich play in Switzerland for second (or for first, if Spartak stumbles in France). I see the Germans taking that one, and it finishing Moscow-Leverkusen-Zurich.

Group F
Still in the mix: Bolton (6 pts), Aris (5 pts), Bayern Munich (5 pts), Sporting Braga (3 pts)
Disqualified: Red Star Belgrade (0 pts)

This group is anybody’s (except Red Star). Bolton lead it right now, but have to sit tight with all their matches already played. A draw between Aris and Munich, combined with a win for Sporting over Red Star, is the only scenario that puts Bolton out of the competition. Even though neither of those two results are outlandish, I don’t see it happening. Bayern should beat the Greeks at home, putting both themselves and Bolton through. Then Braga will need nothing less than a win, which something tells me they won’t get. Red Star has done nothing in this group, but I can see them playing spoiler and sending Braga home along with themselves.

Group G
Qualified: Tottenham (7 pts)
Still in the mix: Getafe (6 pts), Anderlecht (5 pts), Hapoel Tel Aviv (3 pts)
Disqualified: Aalborg (1 pt)

If Aalborg can handle the trip to Tel Aviv and beat or draw Hapoel, they’ll gift Getafe and Anderlecht advancement regardless of the outcome of their match. However, if the Israelis hang tough at home and win, things get more interesting. In that case, Anderlecht would need at least a draw, which would probably put them ahead on goal differential. Regardless of other results, a draw puts Getafe in, but if anyone wins the match between Getafe and Anderlecht, that team wins the group. I’d tip Anderlecht and Hapoel, which puts Anderlecht in first, and I pick Getafe to limp in on their goal differential.

Group H
Qualified: Bordeaux (9 pts), Helsingborg (7 pts)
Still in the mix: Panionios (4 pts), Galatasaray (3 pts)
Disqualified: Austria Vienna (0 pts)

It’s a classic in the rivalry between Greece and Turkey. There’s one qualifying spot left, and both of them want in. If Panionios can win at home against Bordeaux, it’s all over and they’re in. Bordeaux have nothing to play for, since regardless of results, they will win this group. If the Greeks draw, Galatasaray will need a win against Vienna, but if Bordeaux keeps up their 100% record in the group so far and wins, the Turks can get by with just a draw. Wins for Bordeaux and Galatasaray should bring relief to the Turkish side, who have underperformed in the group so far.

Category: UEFA Cup

Tags: Aalborg, Aberdeen, AEK Athens, Anderlecht, Aris, Atletico Madrid, Austria Vienna, AZ, Basel, Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Bolton, Bordeaux, Brann, Copenhagen, Dinamo Zagreb, Elfsborg, Everton, Fiorentina, Galatasaray, Getafe, Group Stage, Hamburg, Hapoel Tel Aviv, Helsingborg, Larisa, Locomotiv Moscow, Mlada Boleslav, Nurnberg, Panathinaikos, Panionios, Red Star Belgrade, Rennes, Sparta Prague, Spartak Moscow, Sporting Braga, Tottenham, Toulouse, UEFA Cup, Villareal, Zenit St. Petersburg, Zurich

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