Group Stage Matchday 1: I fail at prediction

By: Ian Rose | October 25th, 2007

That’s right. My OWL in Divination is in serious doubt. We had a great first matchday in the UEFA Cup group stages … but my first try at tournament prediction did not go well. Here’s a look at today’s matches:

Group A:
Zenit St. Petersburg v. AZ Alkmaar
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 1-1 Draw
The Dutch side got a gutsy point in Russia, but at what cost. Their goal-scorer, Brazilian striker Ari, was sent off, and they have opened their UEFA Cup campaign with 7 yellow cards in this match. Still, a point at the Russian leaders is a good result.

Everton v. Larisa
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 3-1 Home win
Everton got over their controversial derby loss with a convincing win over the Greek side that eliminated Blackburn.

Group B:
Panathinaikos v. Aberdeen
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 3-0 Home win
The Dons knew this would be a tough fixture, especially without striker Darren Mackie. Their loss completes a goalless week for Scottish football in Europe.

Locomotiv Moscow v. Atletico Madrid
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 3-3 Draw
The match of the day, at least in terms of goals. Odemwingie (for Moscow) and Aguero (Madrid) both had braces in this cracker of a game.

Group C:
Elfsborg v. AEK Athens
Predicted: Away win, Actual: 1-1 Draw
Fifth-seeded Elfsborg got a vital point against 2-seed Athens today, on the strength of a 14th-minute goal from Daniel Mobaeck.

Villareal v. Fiorentina
Predicted: Draw, Actual: 1-1 Draw
Fiorentina started strong with a goal just after halftime from none other than Bobo Vieri, but Villareal were able to equalize just before the death to save a point at home.

Group D:
Brann v. Hamburg
Predicted: Draw, Actual: 1-0 Away win
If this were in England, goalscorer Vincent Kompany would be amazing headline fodder for the back pages. “Bad Kompany”, “Hamburg and Kompany take all the points”. Etc, etc.

Basel v. Rennes
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 1-0 Home win
The Swiss side, which a lot of writers have criticized as the weakest of the 1-seeds in this tournament, is tough at home, and proved it with a good win today.

Group E:
Sparta Prague v. Zurich
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 2-1 Away win
One of only two matches I predicted completely backwards. A great win on the road for the 5th-seeded Zurich, and one of the upsets of the round.

Bayer Leverkusen v. Toulouse
Predicted: Draw, Actual: 1-0 Home win
Nice start from the German side. I really though Toulouse had a goal in them, but Leverkusen got theirs in the first half and held on strong.

Group F:
Bolton v. Sporting Braga
Predicted: Away win, Actual: Draw
Bolton not only gets points, but does so on a goal from someone other than Anelka. Nicely done.

Red Star Belgrade v. Bayern Munich
Predicted: Draw, Actual: 3-2 Away win
Twice, Red Star led this one, and twice, Klose brought it back with equalizers. Then Toni Kroos finished off the Serbians. Huge and impressive win for the UEFA Cup favorites.

Group G:
Anderlecht v. Hapoel Tel Aviv
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 2-0 Home win
Considering how poorly Tel Aviv is playing domestically, any other result would be really surprising. Nice start for the Belgians.

Tottenham v. Getafe
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 2-1 Away win
Ouch. This is the only game I actually predicted Spurs to win … Dafoe started it well with an early goal, but Spurs couldn’t hold.

Group H:
Helsingborg v. Panionios
Predicted: Home win, Actual: 1-1 Draw
Both Swedish 5-seeds defended their ground with draws, but like Elfsborg, Helsingborg was unable to scrape out the win.

Bordeaux v. Galatasaray
Predicted: Draw, Actual: 2-1 Home win
Great win for Bordeaux over the strong Turkish side. This is certainly the toughest match for both of these sides in the group, and Bordeaux will be thrilled to have these three points.

So, overall, for those without the patience to count, that’s a horrific 5 correct picks out of 16. Now, since there are three options (Home win, Draw, Away win), logic tells us that just picking randomly should have gotten me between 5 and 6 correct picks. Damn. Oh well. Maybe November 8th will be kinder.