UEFA Cup Group F Preview

By: Ian Rose | October 18th, 2007

We are almost through the previews, and there’s only a week or so until I can start tallying up exactly how many games I got wrong. The sixth of the eight groups, Group F, includes nearly everyone’s favorite for the Cup, as well as a struggling English squad and a very dangerous four seed. Here is the group, in order of seeding:

Bayern Munich (Germany), Bolton (England), Sporting Braga (Portugal), Crvena Zvezda [but we're just going to call them Red Star Belgrade] (Serbia), and Aris Thessaloniki (Greece)

A preview of the matches:

Red Star v. Bayern Munich, 25 October
This is going to be the match of the group for me. Bayern has been the almost unanimous favorite to win this UEFA Cup all year, and this is where they show whether they deserve all that praise. They are riding high in the Bundesliga right now, undefeated after 9 matches, and I expect them to start strong, but the Serbians are looking to put their own stamp on this tournament. Draw.

Bolton v. Sporting Braga, 25 October
Bolton has a lot to distract them from this UEFA Cup. With only Derby below them in the Premier League standings, and with the departure of Sammy Lee, they have problems enough at home. A one-goal first round win over Macedonia’s Rabotnicki didn’t exactly impress either. Braga is playing decently, but that should be enough to handle Bolton in their current form. Away win.

Bayern Munich v. Bolton Wanderers, 8 November
These two teams are unevenly matched anywhere, but in Munich, I can’t see Bolton taking anything away. Home win.

Aris Thessaloniki v. Red Star, 8 November
The Greeks had a fantastic first round in the UEFA Cup, but Aris faces a very tough visitor in Red Star. The attacking team of Barcos and Salas for Red Star don’t produce goalfests, but they also have a stifling defense and lose very few matches. Away win.

Sporting Braga v. Bayern Munich, 29 November
Again, Braga are on decent form domestically, but I’ve seen nothing to convince me they can hold up against the German juggernaut. Away win.

Bolton Wanderers v. Aris Thessaloniki, 29 November
Bolton knows this is their best chance for three points, and I see them taking it. Home win.

Aris Thessaloniki v. Sporting Braga, 6 December
Aris beat Real Zaragoza at home, and maybe they can do the same against Braga, but I don’t see it. Still, I’m going out on a limb and predicting them to take a point out of the Portuguese. Draw.

Red Star v. Bolton, 6 December
Red Star is tough to grind out a win against, but their tendency to settle for one or two goals means that one pesky Anelka strike could do them in. Draw.

Sporting Braga v. Red Star, 19 December
Red Star doesn’t score a lot of goals, but one might just be enough to put away Sporting. Away win.

Bayern Munich v. Aris Thessaloniki, 19 December
This just isn’t fair, and I can’t see Aris taking anything from this. Home win.

If the stars are aligned and all of these matches fall as I have predicted them, here’s how the group ends up, with the advancing teams in bold:

Bayern Munich (10 points)
Red Star Belgrade (8 points)
Sporting Braga (4 points) [advances on head-to-head over Bolton]
Bolton (4 points)
Aris Thessaloniki (1 point)

This is nothing against Bolton. I think the draw with Red Star is actually a bit of a gift. But their form at home, and their unimpressive survival in the UEFA Cup first round, give me no reason to think they’re going to move on. I have to admit that Braga is a team I haven’t seen play very often, and they might manage a few more points than this, but I’m not sure where they’ll get them. Munich is the undisputed king of this group, but those who haven’t played Red Star might be surprised by how hard it is to beat them. They will suffer at some point in the tournament for their tendency to draw rather than win, but it should be enough to get them through this stage.