Russia’s next win will be massive

By: Ian Rose | February 15th, 2008

Now that the UEFA Cup is back, and this blog along with it, I wanted to take a look at the UEFA league coefficients, that awkward and confusing system that makes it possible for England to send four teams to the Champions League while the likes of Scotland and Ukraine send two. Every time a round of the UEFA Cup or Champions League is played, the coefficients are affected, but most of the time, very little changes. Right now, though, the Russian Premier League is on the verge of a very big step up, and one with huge ramifications for all of Europe.

Russia began this European season ranked 9th among all leagues in Europe. What that means is that next season, 2008-09, Russia will send two teams to the Champions League and two to the UEFA Cup. Meanwhile, 8th-placed Holland will send two to the CL and four to the UC. Russia was widely expected to move up into this 4-and-2 group this season, but what they are about to do is one step beyond that. Right now, after Zenit St. Petersburg’s win on Wednesday, Russia sits in 7th in the rankings, only 0.349 points below Romania, who has no teams left in Europe and so can gain no more points. That means that the next time a Russian side (either Zenit or Spartak Moscow) get a win, Russia will move into 6th place.

So what? What’s so important about 6th place? Aside from being the highest spot in the rankings below the five powerhouses of Europe (Spain, England, Italy, France, and Germany), the 6th-place spot comes with a very lucrative bonus: a third team in the Champions League. In one season, Russia has increased its stake in Europe from four teams (two in each competition) to six (three in each), a huge change. The same thing happened last year when Romania jumped into the sixth spot, and their collapse this season proved that was a leap the Romanian league just wasn’t prepared to take. Russia is different, though. There is more money, more quality, and more international interest. Okay, forget the other two. There is more money. Granted, the top two Russian sides both dropped out of the Champions League this season, but it would be a mistake to see this as just another Romania ‘08 waiting to happen. Russia was ranked 21st just four years ago, and their rise has been hugely impressive, but what’s more impressive to me is their staying power. This is a league with the resources to remain up there year in and year out, and perhaps the only league outside of the aforementioned five European powers that might someday break them up.

(Just a statistical note – technically, two draws would also be enough to move Russia into 6th position – but that’s not nearly as dramatic, is it?)